TPTR Plan - Real Relief For Texas Families, Reducing Grocery Prices
Texas Property Tax Replacement Plan — Policy Brief · Article 8
The Most Powerful Free-Market Approach to Lowering Texas Grocery Prices Already Exists
Texas property taxes, inventory taxes, and franchise taxes are embedded in the price of every item on your grocery shelf. The Texas Property Tax Replacement Plan eliminates all three layers simultaneously — and exempts groceries from the replacement tax entirely.
The Hidden Tax in Every Grocery Item
How Texas property taxes and franchise taxes embed themselves in food prices at every supply chain stage
Texans are paying more for groceries than ever before — and the primary reason is not the farmer, the trucker, or even the retailer. It is a tax system that embeds costs at every stage of the food supply chain while also draining thousands of dollars from the household budgets Texans rely on to buy food in the first place.
Before a single can of soup, bag of flour, or carton of eggs reaches a Texas grocery shelf, the state’s tax system has touched it multiple times. The farm that grew the grain paid property tax on its land. The grain elevator paid property tax on its facility. The food processor paid property tax on its plant, its equipment, and its inventory. The distributor paid property tax on its warehouse. And the grocery store paid property tax on its building, its refrigeration equipment, and the shelves of inventory sitting in the store on January 1 — the Texas tax lien date for the inventory tax. And on top of all of that, every entity with over $2.65 million in annual revenue paid the Texas franchise tax on its gross margin at 0.375% for retail and wholesale businesses and 0.75% for others. [TX Comptroller, 2026]
Between 40% and 60% of commercial and business property taxes in Texas are passed through to consumers through higher prices for goods and services. At the midpoint (50%), this embeds approximately $20.6 billion per year of property tax cost into the prices of goods purchased by Texas consumers — including groceries. [TX Comptroller, Jan. 2025]
This is the property tax cascade: each stage of the food supply chain adds a layer of tax cost on top of the layer from the stage before it. The consumer at the register pays all of them, invisibly embedded in the shelf price. At the same time, the franchise tax functions as a recurring markup on every transaction moving up that same supply chain.
What Texas Households Spend on Groceries
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey (Texas, 2022–23), Texas households spend an average of $6,175 per year on food at home — groceries for home preparation. That burden is deeply unequal across income levels. [BLS CE TX, 2025]
For the lowest-income quintile (Q1, avg. income $13,292), grocery spending approaches 25% of pre-tax income. For these households, every dollar saved at the register is a dollar that matters. The TPTRP would return approximately $3,569 per year to Q1 households — roughly equivalent to their entire annual grocery budget — by eliminating the property tax burden they currently pay through rent, prices, and direct ownership costs. [BLS CE TX, 2025] [TX Comptroller, 2025]
What Authoritative Institutions Recommend
Baker Institute, USDA, TX Comptroller, and leading tax policy organizations all point the same direction
Rice University Baker Institute for Public Policy
In its February 2025 report Reform Inventory Tax to Ease Burden on Texas Consumers, the Baker Institute delivered its most direct analysis of the connection between Texas taxation and grocery prices. [Baker Institute, Feb. 2025]
“Inventory taxes increase costs for grocers and pharmacies, leading to higher consumer prices for essential goods… Removing or reducing inventory taxes could make food and medicine more affordable.”— Rice University Baker Institute for Public Policy, February 2025
The Baker Institute further found that grocers, which operate on profit margins of typically 1–3%, are disproportionately affected by the inventory tax; that reducing it would incentivize retailers to stock more fresh, nutritious foods; and that the tax creates a competitive disadvantage discouraging grocery investment in Texas — leading to higher prices and fewer stores in underserved areas. In July 2025 testimony before the Texas Local Government Committee, Baker Institute researchers examined the macroeconomic effects of eliminating the property tax and replacing revenues with a broader sales tax, finding positive consumer price effects from removing commercial property taxes from the business cost stack. [Baker Institute, Jul. 2025]
Texas Comptroller — Publication 96-463 (January 2025)
The Texas Comptroller’s own Tax Exemptions and Tax Incidence report (Pub. 96-463) is the authoritative government source for how property taxes are distributed across the economy. Its key findings: 17–20% of residential rental costs represent landlord property tax passthrough, and 40–60% of commercial and business property taxes are passed through to consumers in the prices of goods and services. [TX Comptroller, Jan. 2025]
USDA Economic Research Service
The USDA ERS Food Expenditure Series (September 2025) documents that Texas households spend approximately $97.185 billion per year on food at home. The ERS Food Price Outlook (May 2026) confirms that food-at-home prices increased 24.0% between January 2020 and January 2023 — driven by supply chain shocks that are transmitted through the same cost-passthrough mechanisms that property tax cascading uses. The USDA Food Access Research Atlas documents that Texas ranks #1 in the nation for low-income, low-access food deserts, with approximately 2.4 million Texans lacking adequate access to healthy food — a crisis driven in part by high operating costs that make grocery investment in underserved areas unattractive. [USDA ERS, 2025] [USDA FARA, 2025]
Tax Policy Research on Pyramiding
The Multistate Tax Commission’s analysis Tax Pyramiding and Business Inputs (2024) documents that business-to-business tax pyramiding “creates economic distortions including a bias in favor of integrated businesses, unequal burdens on different industries, and higher final consumer prices.” These distortions are particularly pronounced in the food supply chain, which involves more distinct production stages than most industries. [MTC, 2024]
Six Ways the TPTRP Reduces Grocery Prices
A structural analysis of each mechanism grounded in official government data
Mechanism 1 — Groceries Are Explicitly Exempt from the Replacement Tax
The TPTRP’s Final Tax Base is derived by removing 12 categories of essential household expenditures — the Texas Living Exemption Set (TLES) — from the taxable base. TLES-1 is the grocery exemption: $97.185 billion per year in food-at-home spending is exempt from the TPTRP replacement tax entirely, based on the USDA ERS Food Expenditure Series. Under the TPTRP, Texas households pay zero replacement sales tax on grocery purchases at the register. [USDA ERS, Sept. 2025]
Every food item purchased at a Texas grocery store or supermarket (NAICS 4451/4452) for off-premises consumption is exempt from the TPTRP replacement tax. This preserves the current Texas Tax Code §151.314 food exemption and extends it permanently. [TX Comptroller Pub. 96-280]
Mechanism 2 — The Property Tax Cascade Is Eliminated Entirely
The TPTRP eliminates all ad valorem property taxes in Texas by constitutional amendment. The TY2025 statewide property tax levy across all taxing units is $89.446 billion. At the Comptroller’s midpoint commercial passthrough rate of 50%, the approximately $41.2 billion in non-residential property taxes reduces embedded consumer prices by approximately $20.6 billion annually statewide — distributed across every good and service sold in Texas, including groceries. [TX Comptroller PTAD TY2025] [TX Comptroller Pub. 96-463, Jan. 2025]
No partial reform — not BPP exemption increases, not franchise tax credits, not antitrust enforcement — eliminates the cascade. The TPTRP eliminates it at every stage simultaneously. A farm, food processor, warehouse, and grocery store all become property-tax-free on the same day the law takes effect.
Mechanism 3 — The Inventory Tax Is Abolished Entirely
The Baker Institute identified the inventory tax as a direct driver of higher grocery prices. Texas’s January 1 lien date means every grocery store’s shelves, every distributor’s warehouse, and every food processor’s storage are taxed on their full inventory value — creating perverse “stock reduction” incentives before the lien date, compliance costs that are passed to consumers, and a direct operating cost embedded in shelf prices. The 2025 Legislature’s Proposition 9 raised the BPP exemption from $2,500 to $125,000, saving an estimated $500 million per year — a meaningful first step. But the TPTRP abolishes the inventory tax completely and permanently. A grocery store with $2 million in inventory on January 1 pays exactly $0 in inventory tax under the TPTRP. [Baker Institute, Feb. 2025]
Mechanism 4 — The Tax Pyramid Is Replaced by a Single Low Rate
The TPTRP’s 3.25% Starting Cap Rate (SCR) replaces the multi-layered property tax and franchise tax pyramid through the food supply chain. While the TPTRP applies to business-to-business transactions (unlike the current sales tax exemption for B2B sales), its flat 3.25% rate is substantially lower than the effective embedded cost rate the current system imposes across 5–7 supply chain stages through property taxes alone. Grocery purchases at the consumer level carry zero TPTRP tax. [TX Comptroller PTAD TY2025] [MTC, 2024]
Mechanism 5 — The Franchise Tax on Food Businesses Is Abolished Entirely
This is the mechanism most overlooked in other analyses. The Texas franchise tax applies to every entity with over $2.65 million in annual revenue at 0.375% of taxable margin for retail and wholesale businesses (including all grocery chains, food distributors, and most food processors) and 0.75% for other entities in the supply chain. [TX Comptroller, 2026]
| Entity Type | Rate | Example TX Revenue | Annual Franchise Tax | Passed to Consumers? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional grocery chain | 0.375% | $500M | ~$1,875,000 | Yes — embedded in shelf prices |
| Food distributor | 0.375% | $200M | ~$750,000 | Yes — embedded in wholesale prices |
| Large food processor | 0.75% | $300M | ~$2,250,000 | Yes — embedded in manufacturer prices |
| Cold chain logistics company | 0.75% | $80M | ~$600,000 | Yes — embedded in transport surcharges |
| Illustrative 4-entity chain total, annually | ~$5,475,000 | All eliminated under TPTRP | ||
The TPTRP’s T1 State Total Replacement Obligation includes all franchise tax revenue in the replacement base. When the TPTRP takes effect, the franchise tax is abolished in full, replaced by the system-wide 3.25% sales and use tax on the Final Taxable Base. No other reform proposal currently before the Texas Legislature schedules the franchise tax for full abolition. Only the TPTRP eliminates it completely and permanently. [TX Comptroller Annual Cash Report, FY2025]
Mechanism 6 — Household Savings Make Food Genuinely More Affordable
Even before any shelf price reduction, the TPTRP directly improves grocery affordability by returning thousands of dollars to household budgets. The property tax is the most regressive major tax in Texas: Q1 households (avg. income $13,292) bear an effective property tax burden of 14.5% of income, while Q5 households (avg. income $230,158) bear only 2.8% — a regressivity ratio of 5.24. Eliminating this burden does more for low-income families’ ability to buy groceries than any price control, subsidy program, or emergency legislation could achieve. [BLS CE TX, 2025] [TX Comptroller Pub. 96-463, 2025]
| Income Quintile | Avg. Annual Income | Annual Grocery Spend | Est. Annual Savings (TPTRP) | Savings as % of Grocery Spend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 — Lowest 20% | $13,292 | $4,204 | ~$3,569 | ~85% |
| Q2 — Second 20% | $35,058 | $5,069 | ~$5,200 (est.) | ~103% |
| Q3 — Middle 20% | $60,726 | $5,491 | ~$6,800 (est.) | ~124% |
| Q4 — Fourth 20% | $103,587 | $6,694 | ~$9,200 (est.) | ~137% |
| Q5 — Highest 20% | $230,158 | $9,699 | ~$13,875 | ~143% |
| All-HH Average | $91,099 | $6,175 | ~$7,477 (est.) | ~121% |
A Real Grocery Basket: What the TPTRP Removes from the Price Tag
Illustrative per-item embedded tax cost estimates based on TX Comptroller incidence data and franchise tax rates
The following comparison uses the TPTRP’s verified tax elimination mechanisms to estimate how current embedded property, inventory, and franchise taxes affect a representative weekly grocery basket for a Texas family of four. [TX Comptroller PTAD TY2025] [TX Comptroller Pub. 96-463, Jan. 2025] [TX Comptroller Franchise Tax, 2026]
Embedded property and inventory tax figures use the TX Comptroller Pub. 96-463 commercial passthrough midpoint (50%) applied to the ~$41.2B non-residential levy allocated to the food supply chain. Franchise tax estimates use the confirmed 0.375% rate at retail/wholesale stages plus upstream passthrough. These are supply-chain cost passthrough estimates, not directly observable per-item data. The direction of effect — embedded costs that would be eliminated — is established fact. Per-item amounts are illustrative estimates using authoritative methodology.
| Item Category | Weekly Cost | Est. Embedded Prop. Tax | Est. Embedded Inv. Tax | Est. Embedded Franchise Tax | TPTRP: Total Reduction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bread (2 loaves) | $7.50 | $0.23–$0.38 | $0.04–$0.08 | $0.03–$0.06 | $0.30–$0.52 |
| Milk (1 gallon) | $4.25 | $0.13–$0.21 | $0.02–$0.04 | $0.02–$0.03 | $0.17–$0.28 |
| Eggs (2 dozen) | $9.00 | $0.27–$0.45 | $0.05–$0.09 | $0.04–$0.07 | $0.36–$0.61 |
| Chicken (5 lbs) | $14.00 | $0.42–$0.70 | $0.07–$0.14 | $0.06–$0.11 | $0.55–$0.95 |
| Ground beef (3 lbs) | $18.00 | $0.54–$0.90 | $0.09–$0.18 | $0.07–$0.14 | $0.70–$1.22 |
| Canned goods (6 items) | $12.00 | $0.36–$0.60 | $0.06–$0.12 | $0.05–$0.10 | $0.47–$0.82 |
| Produce (fruits/veg) | $22.00 | $0.66–$1.10 | $0.11–$0.22 | $0.09–$0.18 | $0.86–$1.50 |
| Dairy (cheese, yogurt) | $11.00 | $0.33–$0.55 | $0.06–$0.11 | $0.04–$0.09 | $0.43–$0.75 |
| Cereal/breakfast items | $8.00 | $0.24–$0.40 | $0.04–$0.08 | $0.03–$0.06 | $0.31–$0.54 |
| Beverages (non-alc.) | $10.00 | $0.30–$0.50 | $0.05–$0.10 | $0.04–$0.08 | $0.39–$0.68 |
| Weekly Total | $115.75 | $3.47–$5.79 | $0.59–$1.16 | $0.47–$0.92 | $4.53–$7.87 |
| Annual Total | $6,019 | $180–$301 | $31–$60 | $24–$48 | $235–$409 |
Fifteen Years of Grocery Inflation — and What the TPTRP Does About It
U.S. food-at-home prices rose 46% since 2010. The TPTRP removes the embedded tax layer that has compounded every increase.
To understand what the TPTRP delivers for Texas families at the grocery register, it is necessary to start with where prices actually are today — not where they were when most Texans last felt comfortable at the checkout line. Since 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has tracked average retail prices for common grocery items at thousands of stores nationwide. The data show an unambiguous reality: the cost of a basic grocery basket has risen dramatically, with the steepest surge concentrated in the five years from 2020 to 2025. [BLS Average Price Data, 2025]
Between 2010 and 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for food at home rose 46.2% using the national city average index (1982–84=100). In the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington metropolitan area — the largest Texas metro tracked by BLS — the food CPI reached 335.3 in 2025, up from an estimated 229 in 2010, representing a 46% increase over the same period. The price surge was not linear: more than half of the entire 15-year increase occurred between 2020 and 2023 alone. [BLS CUURA316SAF11, 2026] [BLS CPI Average Prices, 2025]
Item-by-Item: What Texans Pay at the Register
The BLS Average Price Data series tracks specific retail prices at the item level across all U.S. urban areas. The five items below are among the most widely purchased grocery staples and are representative of the categories tracked in the USDA’s standard food plan basket. Prices shown are annual averages of all available monthly observations for each year. [BLS Average Price Data, Apr. 2025]
| Item | Unit | 2010 | 2015 | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 | Chg. 2010→2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eggs, Grade A Large | per doz. | $1.66 | $2.47 | $1.40 | $1.67 | $2.86 | $3.17 | $4.25 | +156% |
| Ground Chuck, 100% Beef | per lb. | $2.91 | $4.25 | $3.94 | $4.56 | $4.87 | $5.43 | $6.14 | +111% |
| Chicken, Fresh, Whole | per lb. | $1.26 | $1.49 | $1.50 | $1.53 | $1.80 | $2.00 | $2.06 | +63% |
| Bread, White, Pan | per lb. | $1.37 | $1.44 | $1.30 | $1.52 | $1.70 | $1.97 | $1.87 | +36% |
| Milk, Whole, Fortified | per gal. | $3.26 | $3.42 | $3.04 | $3.54 | $4.09 | $3.98 | $4.07 | +25% |
The Inflation Surge and the Tax Layer Underneath It
The national food-at-home CPI rose a modest 16% from 2010 to 2020 — then surged 26% in just the following five years, with the Dallas–Fort Worth food index reaching 335.3 in 2025 versus 329.3 in 2024, according to FRED data (series CUURA316SAF11). [FRED CUUSA316SAF11, 2026] The 2020–2022 surge was driven by COVID-19 supply chain disruption, labor shortages, and the fertilizer and energy price shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The 2023–2025 period reflects persistently elevated input costs that have not fully rolled back. [USDA ERS Food Price Outlook, May 2026]
What this means for Texas families is stark: a five-item grocery basket that cost $21.83 per week in 2010 — $1,135 annually — now costs $40.91 per week, or $2,127 annually. That is an additional $992 per year simply to buy the same items. For a Q1 household averaging $13,292 in annual income, that $992 increase represents roughly 7.5% of total pre-tax income spent solely on inflation in five staple items — before any other grocery categories are considered.
“A Texas family of four pays $992 more per year today for the same five grocery staples they bought in 2010 — and embedded inside that $40.91 weekly basket is a hidden government tax layer of $1.60 to $2.78 that the TPTRP would eliminate.”— Derived from BLS Average Price Data (2025) and TX Comptroller Pub. 96-463 (Jan. 2025)
What the TPTRP Removes from These Inflated Prices
The TPTRP does not reverse 15 years of inflation — and no policy can. What it does is eliminate the embedded government-imposed tax layer that is now baked into every inflated price. Using the TX Comptroller’s commercial passthrough methodology from Publication 96-463 (January 2025), the five-item basket carries an estimated embedded property, inventory, and franchise tax burden of $1.60 to $2.78 per week, or $83 to $145 per year. [TX Comptroller Pub. 96-463, Jan. 2025]
| Item (Basket Qty.) | 2010 Price | 2025 Price (Today) | Increase | Est. Embedded Tax (Low–High) | 2025 After TPTRP (Mid Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eggs, Grade A Large (2 doz.) | $3.32 | $8.50 | +$5.18 (+156%) | $0.33–$0.58 | $8.04 |
| Ground Beef, Chuck (3 lbs.) | $8.71 | $18.42 | +$9.71 (+111%) | $0.72–$1.25 | $17.43 |
| Chicken, Whole (3 lbs.) | $3.79 | $6.18 | +$2.39 (+63%) | $0.24–$0.42 | $5.85 |
| Bread, White Pan (2 lbs.) | $2.75 | $3.74 | +$0.99 (+36%) | $0.15–$0.25 | $3.54 |
| Milk, Whole (1 gal.) | $3.26 | $4.07 | +$0.81 (+25%) | $0.16–$0.28 | $3.85 |
| Weekly Total (5 items) | $21.83 | $40.91 | +$19.08 (+87%) | $1.60–$2.78 | $38.72 |
| Annual Total (52 weeks) | $1,135 | $2,127 | +$992/yr | $83–$145/yr | $2,013/yr |
Critically, the TPTRP’s grocery exemption (TLES-1) means consumers owe zero TPTRP replacement tax on all grocery purchases at the register. Combined with the removal of the embedded tax cascade across every supply chain stage, the TPTRP produces a two-sided affordability benefit: prices fall on the shelf, and no new tax is imposed at the register. No other reform currently pending before the Texas Legislature delivers both simultaneously. [TX Comptroller Pub. 96-463, Jan. 2025] [TX Comptroller PTAD TY2025]
The TPTRP eliminates embedded tax costs — it does not reverse commodity market price increases driven by drought, avian flu, or global energy prices. A Texas family will still pay more for eggs in 2025 than in 2010 because egg supply was decimated by HPAI. What the TPTRP ensures is that the government does not also add a compounding property, inventory, and franchise tax surcharge on top of those market prices — at the farm, at the hatchery, at the distributor, and at the store shelf simultaneously.
Complementary Free-Market Reforms
What the TPTRP doesn’t cover — and what existing law and legislation can address
The TPTRP is the most structurally impactful reform for grocery affordability. But it does not address every dimension of the grocery price problem. Three complementary, constitutionally sound reforms address what the TPTRP does not directly cover:
Anti-Competitive Deed Restrictions on Grocery Sites
When a large grocery chain closes a store, it sometimes retains deed restrictions that prevent competitors from opening in the same location for years. This eliminates competition and deepens food deserts. Texas could prohibit restrictive covenants on vacated retail food space (NAICS 4451/4452) that restrict subsequent grocery use for more than 90 days after closure — a zero-cost, pro-market reform consistent with free-market principles.
State Antitrust Enforcement
The Texas Free Enterprise and Antitrust Act (TFAA) gives the Attorney General authority to pursue price discrimination and anticompetitive behavior by suppliers. Supplier price discrimination that favors national chains over independent grocers — inflating costs for smaller operators serving lower-income communities — is actionable under current Texas law and does not require new legislation.
Texas Food Freedom Act (SB 541 / Effective Sept. 2025)
The Texas Food Freedom Act, effective September 2025, tripled the cottage food sales cap to $150,000, expanded allowable foods to nearly all home-prepared items, and explicitly prohibited local permits or fees. This creates a legitimate competitive pathway for small food producers — reducing the oligopolistic structure of the food supply and expanding consumer options.
These complementary reforms address market structure and competition issues. The TPTRP addresses the fundamental tax cost structure. Together, they constitute the most comprehensive constitutional, free-market grocery affordability agenda available to Texas policymakers.
Why No Other Approach Comes Close
A direct comparison of every major constitutional, free-market alternative
Every major constitutional, free-market alternative to reduce grocery prices falls short of the TPTRP in scale and permanence. The TPTRP does not require identifying specific businesses, applying for credits, winning antitrust cases, or navigating local variance processes. It applies uniformly, automatically, and permanently to every farm, food processor, distributor, and grocery store in Texas the moment it takes effect. [TX Comptroller PTAD TY2025] [Baker Institute, Feb. 2025]
| Approach | What It Does | Limitation vs. TPTRP |
|---|---|---|
| Prop. 9 / BPP Exemption ($125K) | Partial inventory tax relief | Only covers entities below $125K BPP; large grocers & distributors still taxed |
| State antitrust enforcement | Addresses supplier price discrimination | Does not touch supply chain tax costs |
| Deed restriction ban | Removes anti-competitive site controls | Does not reduce any tax cost |
| Food Freedom Act expansion | Increases small producer competition | Does not reduce costs for mainstream grocery supply chain |
| Price controls | Would set maximum prices | Unconstitutional (economic due process); counterproductive; all free-market economists oppose |
| TPTRP | Eliminates ALL property taxes on farm, plant, warehouse, store & inventory; abolishes franchise tax on every food business; exempts groceries from replacement tax; returns $3,569–$13,875/yr to households | No limitation — complete, permanent, structural elimination of all three embedded tax layers |
The Constitutional and Free-Market Case
Three pillars that make the TPTRP the right solution — not just the largest one
The TPTRP never tells any business what to charge. It eliminates government-imposed costs that businesses currently bear and pass through to consumers. What businesses do with the savings — reduce prices, invest in expansion, reinvest in operations — is entirely their decision. The free market transmits the savings to consumers through competition.
The property tax imposes a perpetual annual levy on the fact of ownership — regardless of income, productivity, or use. The franchise tax imposes a recurring levy on the fact of earning revenue — taxing a business simply for conducting commerce. Both are antithetical to free-market principles. The TPTRP replaces both with a tax on transactions — purchases made by choice. [Cato Institute, Oct. 2025]
“To tax property again every year after it has been bought with after-tax income is to deny genuine ownership.”— Cato Institute, October 2025
The TPTRP is implemented through a constitutional amendment that makes ad valorem property taxes unconstitutional, and through enabling legislation that abolishes the franchise tax as part of the replacement package. The constitutional amendment cannot be undone by a future legislature without another constitutional amendment and a vote of the people.
No other proposal on the table — not partial BPP exemptions, not antitrust enforcement, not franchise tax credits — achieves simultaneous, permanent, structural elimination of the property tax cascade, the inventory tax, and the franchise tax burden on the food supply chain, while exempting groceries from the replacement tax entirely and returning thousands of dollars to every Texas household. The TPTRP is the free-market grocery price reform Texas has been waiting for. [Baker Institute, Feb. 2025] [USDA ERS, 2025] [TX Comptroller, 2025]
References
Sources organized by the sections of this article they principally inform. APA 7th Edition format. All sources are primary official government records or recognized authoritative research institution publications.
Grocery Pricing, Property Tax Incidence & Inventory Tax — Sections 1, 2, 3
Rice University Baker Institute for Public Policy. (2025, February 27). Reform inventory tax to ease burden on Texas consumers. Baker Institute for Public Policy. https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/reform-inventory-tax-ease-burden-texas-consumers
Primary finding cited in Sections 2 and 3: “Inventory taxes increase costs for grocers and pharmacies, leading to higher consumer prices for essential goods.” Documents the disproportionate burden on thin-margin grocery retailers and recommends full elimination. Full PDF: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/sites/default/files/2025-02/20250227-Taxes%20in%20Texas_2.pdf
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. (2025, January). Tax exemptions and tax incidence: 2025 report (Publication 96-463). Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. https://comptroller.texas.gov/transparency/reports/tax-exemptions-and-incidence/2025/96-463.pdf
Official state incidence analysis. Establishes the 40–60% commercial property tax consumer passthrough rate (midpoint 50%) and 17–20% renter passthrough rate used in all embedded cost estimates. Canonical authority for Sections 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 incidence methodology.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2025, September). Food expenditure series: State-level food-at-home expenditures, 2024. USDA ERS. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-expenditure-series/
Source for TLES-1 grocery exemption amount: Texas food-at-home spending $97.185 billion FY2025. The TPTRP exempts this entire spending category from the replacement tax. Used in Sections 1, 2, and 3.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Consumer Expenditure Survey, Texas 2022–2023, income quintiles before taxes, 2-year average. U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables/geographic/mean/2023/cu-state-tx-income-quintiles-before-taxes-2-year-average-2023.htm
Canonical source for all household grocery spending figures. Q1 food at home: $4,204; All-HH: $6,175. Escalated to FY2025 using BEA SAGDP2 TX multiplier 1.13183. Foundation for all quintile-level analysis in Sections 1, 2, 3, and 4.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2026). SAGDP2: Annual GDP by state, Texas, private industries, 1997–2025 (Data file SAGDP2TX). BEA. https://apps.bea.gov/regional/downloadzip.cfm
Source for BLS CE escalation factor 1.13183 (ratio of FY2025 TX private industries nominal GDP to 2022–23 average). Applied uniformly to all household expenditure dollar figures.
TPTRP Rate Structure & Property Tax Levy Data — Sections 3 and 7
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Property Tax Assistance Division. (2026). 2025 total property tax rates and levies — all jurisdictions (4 tier files: counties, cities, schools, special districts). https://comptroller.texas.gov/taxes/property-tax/docs/2025-total-rates-levies.xlsx
Authoritative TY2025 statewide levy data: $89,446,084,847.72 across all taxing units. Used to derive the $41.2B non-residential levy (commercial + BPP + other non-residential) that forms the basis of the embedded consumer cost analysis in Sections 3, 4, and 5.
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Property Tax Assistance Division. (2024). 2023 school district property value study — state totals by category, certified values. https://comptroller.texas.gov/auto-data/PT2PVS2023PALL0000001Y.php
Certified property category value shares used to allocate the TY2025 total levy to residential vs. non-residential categories: commercial real property (Cat F1/F2 ~21.2%), business personal property (Cat L1/L2/S ~9.0%), other non-residential ~16.8%.
Franchise Tax Structure — Sections 3, 4
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. (2023, December). Franchise tax overview (Publication 98-806). https://comptroller.texas.gov/taxes/publications/98-806.php
Official overview of franchise tax structure: all corporations, LLCs, partnerships, and other legal entities doing business in Texas are subject to franchise tax. Taxable margin is revenue minus COGS or other allowed deductions. Foundation for franchise tax supply chain passthrough analysis in Sections 3 and 4.
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. (2026). Franchise tax rates, thresholds, and deduction limits. https://comptroller.texas.gov/taxes/franchise/
Confirmed current rates: 0.375% for retail and wholesale entities; 0.75% for all other taxable entities. No-tax-due threshold: $2.65 million (FY2026 reports). Directly cited in Sections 3, 4, and 5.
Food Price Trends & Food Access — Section 2
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2026, May 21). Food Price Outlook: Summary findings. USDA ERS. https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings/
Documents food-at-home price increase of 24.0% between January 2020 and January 2023. Context for the magnitude of grocery price inflation driven through supply chain cost transmission mechanisms — the same channels through which embedded property and franchise taxes operate.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2025, September). Food Access Research Atlas. USDA ERS. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-access-research-atlas/
Texas ranks #1 in the nation for low-income, low-access food deserts. Approximately 2.4 million Texans lack adequate access to healthy food. Establishes that high grocery operating costs — including property and franchise taxes — are a structural driver of the food access crisis.
Grocery Price Inflation & CPI Data — Section 5
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Average price data (in U.S. dollars), selected items. BLS Consumer Price Index Program. https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-average-price-data.htm
Primary source for all item-level retail price data in Section 5. Monthly average retail prices for eggs (Grade A large, per dozen), milk (whole fortified, per gallon), bread (white pan, per pound), ground chuck (100% beef, per pound), and chicken (fresh whole, per pound) from January 2010 through 2025. Annual averages computed from monthly observations. National U.S. City Average; not seasonally adjusted.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED Economic Data. (2026). Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food at Home in Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, TX (CBSA) (CUURA316SAF11). FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA316SAF11
Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington metropolitan area food-at-home CPI index (1982–84=100). Key annual values: 2021: 268.4; 2022: 298.7; 2023: 320.8; 2024: 329.3; 2025: 335.3. Sourced from FRED, updated May 12, 2026. Used in Section 5 to establish Texas-specific food inflation context for the 2020–2025 surge period.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Southwest Regional Office. (2026, April 9). Consumer Price Index, Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington area, March 2026. BLS Southwest Region. https://www.bls.gov/regions/southwest/news-release/consumerpriceindex_dallasfortworth.htm
Official BLS CPI release for the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington area. Food at home rose 3.3% year-over-year to March 2026. Provides Texas-specific regional context for Section 5 food inflation analysis and confirms that grocery price inflation has not fully abated as of early 2026.
Tax Pyramiding & Business Input Taxation — Section 3
Multistate Tax Commission. (2024). Tax pyramiding and business inputs. MTC. https://www.mtc.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Tax-Pyramiding-and-Business-Inputs.pdf
MTC analysis cited in Section 3 Mechanism 4: documents that B2B tax pyramiding “creates economic distortions including a bias in favor of integrated businesses, unequal burdens on different industries, and higher final consumer prices.”
Constitutional & Free-Market Framework — Section 8
Cato Institute. (2025, October 29). How should libertarians think about property taxes? Cato Institute. https://www.cato.org/blog/how-should-libertarians-think-about-property-taxes
Foundational liberty and property rights argument against property taxes: “to tax property again every year after it has been bought with after-tax income is to deny genuine ownership.” Cited in Section 8 pull quote and constitutional case pillar 2.
Baker Institute for Public Policy. (2025, July 31). Testimony to the Texas Local Government Committee: Property tax elimination and replacement. Baker Institute. https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/testimony-texas-local-government-committee
Baker Institute testimony examining macroeconomic effects of eliminating the property tax and replacing revenues via a broader sales tax base. Found positive consumer price effects from removing commercial property taxes from the Texas business cost stack. Cited in Section 2.
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. (2025). Publication 96-280: Grocery and convenience stores. https://comptroller.texas.gov/taxes/publications/96-280.php
Confirms that flour, sugar, bread, milk, eggs, fruits, vegetables, and similar food products are not subject to Texas sales and use tax under Tax Code §151.314. Documents the current grocery exemption that the TPTRP preserves and extends permanently through TLES-1.
Deep-Dive Data
Explore the primary datasets that underpin this analysis. Each tab contains a full data table and an expandable article-length explainer.
BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey TX 2022–23, escalated to FY2025 using BEA SAGDP2 TX growth factor (1.13183). Shows annual food-at-home spending, grocery spend as % of income, and estimated TPTRP annual savings for each quintile.
| Quintile | Avg. Income | Annual Grocery Spend | % of Income | Est. TPTRP Savings | Savings as % of Groceries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 — Lowest 20% | $13,292 | $4,204 | 31.6% | ~$3,569 | ~85% |
| Q2 — Second 20% | $35,058 | $5,069 | 14.5% | ~$5,200 | ~103% |
| Q3 — Middle 20% | $60,726 | $5,491 | 9.0% | ~$6,800 | ~124% |
| Q4 — Fourth 20% | $103,587 | $6,694 | 6.5% | ~$9,200 | ~137% |
| Q5 — Highest 20% | $230,158 | $9,699 | 4.2% | ~$13,875 | ~143% |
| All-HH Average | $91,099 | $6,175 | 6.8% | ~$7,477 | ~121% |
Source: TX Comptroller PTAD TY2025 4-tier levy files. Total statewide levy: $89,446,084,847.72. Non-residential levy (commercial + BPP + other non-res): ~$41.2 billion.
| Entity Category | TY2025 Levy ($) | % of Total | TPTRP Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| School Districts | $45,918,423,539 | 51.3% | Eliminated; replaced by TPTRP revenue share to ISDs |
| Cities/Municipalities | $14,947,052,215 | 16.7% | Eliminated; replaced by TPTRP municipal allocation |
| Counties | $13,121,088,450 | 14.7% | Eliminated; replaced by TPTRP county allocation |
| Special Districts | $15,459,520,644 | 17.3% | Eliminated; replaced by TPTRP special district fund |
| Total Statewide Levy | $89,446,084,848 | 100% | All eliminated under TPTRP constitutional amendment |
Estimated property tax, inventory tax, and franchise tax costs embedded at each stage of the food supply chain, per $1.00 of retail grocery value. Based on TX Comptroller Pub. 96-463 methodology and TX Comptroller Franchise Tax rates.
| Supply Chain Stage | Tax Types Applied | Est. Embedded Cost per $1.00 Retail | Eliminated Under TPTRP? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farm / Agricultural Production | Property tax (land + structures); BPP on equipment | $0.004–$0.009 | Yes — all property taxes eliminated |
| Processing / Manufacturing | Property tax (plant + equipment + inventory); franchise tax 0.75% | $0.010–$0.020 | Yes — all eliminated |
| Distribution / Logistics | Property tax (warehouse + fleet yard); franchise tax 0.75% | $0.006–$0.012 | Yes — all eliminated |
| Grocery Retail | Property tax (building + refrigeration + inventory); franchise tax 0.375% | $0.015–$0.025 | Yes — all eliminated |
| Total Cascade | 4 stages, 3 tax types each | $0.035–$0.066 | 100% eliminated under TPTRP |
Direct comparison of all major constitutional, free-market grocery price reform options by mechanism, estimated scale, implementation timeline, and permanence.
| Reform Option | Mechanism | Est. Annual Impact on Grocery Costs | Permanent? | Constitutional? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPP Exemption ($125K, Prop. 9 2025) | Reduces inventory tax on small/mid-size businesses | ~$500M statewide all goods | No — legislature can reverse | Yes |
| State antitrust enforcement | Addresses supplier price discrimination | Uncertain, case-by-case | No | Yes |
| Deed restriction ban on grocery sites | Increases grocery location competition | Indirect; market-driven | Until repealed | Yes |
| Texas Food Freedom Act (SB 541) | Expands cottage food competition | Marginal; small producer only | Until repealed | Yes |
| Price controls | Sets maximum retail prices | N/A — unconstitutional | N/A | No |
| TPTRP | Eliminates all 3 tax layers at all 4 supply chain stages; exempts groceries at register | $235–$409/yr per family basket + $3,569–$13,875/yr household savings | Yes — constitutional amendment | Yes |
Annual average retail prices for five BLS-tracked grocery staples, U.S. City Average. Annual averages of monthly BLS data. Source: BLS Average Price Data Series, retrieved 2025–2026.
| Year | Eggs (per doz.) | Ground Chuck (per lb.) | Whole Chicken (per lb.) | White Bread (per lb.) | Whole Milk (per gal.) | Basket Weekly Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $1.66 | $2.91 | $1.26 | $1.37 | $3.26 | $21.83 |
| 2011 | $1.97 | $3.30 | $1.38 | $1.43 | $3.46 | $24.79 |
| 2012 | $1.80 | $3.66 | $1.44 | $1.43 | $3.52 | $26.00 |
| 2013 | $1.93 | $3.75 | $1.46 | $1.42 | $3.55 | $26.71 |
| 2014 | $2.19 | $4.16 | $1.57 | $1.39 | $3.69 | $29.02 |
| 2015 | $2.47 | $4.25 | $1.49 | $1.44 | $3.42 | $28.45 |
| 2016 | $1.33 | $3.90 | $1.50 | $1.37 | $3.27 | $25.88 |
| 2017 | $1.46 | $3.84 | $1.48 | $1.32 | $3.24 | $25.35 |
| 2018 | $1.54 | $3.81 | $1.49 | $1.29 | $3.16 | $25.07 |
| 2019 | $1.40 | $3.94 | $1.50 | $1.30 | $3.04 | $24.73 |
| 2020 | $1.50 | $4.46 | $1.48 | $1.39 | $3.28 | $27.09 |
| 2021 | $1.67 | $4.56 | $1.53 | $1.52 | $3.54 | $29.03 |
| 2022 | $2.86 | $4.87 | $1.80 | $1.70 | $4.09 | $33.22 |
| 2023 | $2.52 | $5.22 | $1.90 | $1.82 | $4.02 | $34.50 |
| 2024 | $3.17 | $5.43 | $2.00 | $1.97 | $3.98 | $36.55 |
| 2025 | $4.25 | $6.14 | $2.06 | $1.87 | $4.07 | $40.91 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2025. Average Price Data (in U.S. dollars), selected items. BLS CPI Program. Basket quantities: 2 doz. eggs, 1 gal. milk, 2 lbs. bread, 3 lbs. ground chuck, 3 lbs. whole chicken.