Master Data Dashboard
Will Campbell · Candidate For Texas House District 109
Master Data Dashboard · willcampbellfortexas.com/data

The Master Data Dashboard Resource for HD109

Original-source research and analysis on the issues that matter to Cedar Hill, Lancaster, DeSoto, Glenn Heights, Hutchins, Wilmer, Combine, Ferris, and Seagoville. Every figure below traces back to a cited primary source.

Jump to any topic report using the Table of Contents menu above, or link directly to a section with willcampbellfortexas.com/data#wcd-sec-[slug].

Property Tax Comparison — HD109 vs. Dallas County vs. Texas
City-portion property tax rates, 2017–2025 (taxable-value-weighted averages)
$0.621
HD109 Avg City Rate, 2025 (per $100)
$0.635
Dallas County Avg, 2025
$0.532
Texas Statewide Avg, 2025
+16.8%
HD109 Above State Avg, 2025
Summary of Findings

HD109 cities carry a heavier city-tax burden than the statewide average every year from 2017-2025. The gap has narrowed from 31.1% above the state average in 2017 to 16.8% above in 2025, driven mainly by rate cuts in Lancaster, Glenn Heights, and DeSoto [Texas Comptroller, 2017-2025].

HD109's rate advantage over Dallas County as a whole flipped in 2023. HD109 cities were taxed 7.9% above the Dallas County city average in 2017, but by 2023-2025 HD109 cities' average rate fell slightly below the county-wide average, reflecting faster local rate reductions relative to the rest of the county.

Seagoville, DeSoto, and Hutchins carry the highest city tax rates in HD109 as of 2025 (0.721, 0.685, and 0.657 per $100, respectively), while Combine and Wilmer carry the lowest (0.350 and 0.468).

Table
Avg. City Property Tax Rate by Geography, 2017–2025
Rate per $100 taxable value, taxable-value-weighted average
Year Texas Statewide Dallas County HD109 Cities HD109 vs State
2017 0.5665 0.6882 0.7426 +31.1%
2018 0.5656 0.6881 0.7369 +30.3%
2019 0.5633 0.6948 0.7281 +29.3%
2020 0.5698 0.6944 0.7221 +26.7%
2021 0.5635 0.6914 0.7144 +26.8%
2022 0.5345 0.6652 0.6675 +24.9%
2023 0.5250 0.6565 0.6344 +20.8%
2024 0.5217 0.6381 0.6211 +19.0%
2025 0.5316 0.6348 0.6212 +16.8%
Chart · Line
City Property Tax Rate Trend, 2017–2025
HD109 cities vs. Dallas County vs. Texas statewide
HD109 Cities Dallas County Texas Statewide
Table
HD109 City-Level Tax Rates, 2025
Individual city rate per $100 taxable value
City 2017 Rate 2025 Rate Change
Cedar Hill 0.6988 0.6364 -8.9%
Lancaster 0.8675 0.5995 -30.9%
DeSoto 0.7399 0.6849 -7.4%
Glenn Heights 0.8854 0.5628 -36.4%
Hutchins 0.6825 0.6570 -3.7%
Wilmer 0.5029 0.4679 -7.0%
Combine 0.3500 0.3500 0.0%
Ferris 0.6871 0.5648 -17.8%
Seagoville 0.7438 0.7207 -3.1%
Ranked List
HD109 Cities Ranked by 2025 Tax Rate
Highest to lowest city property tax rate, per $100 taxable value
1
Seagoville
0.7207
2
DeSoto
0.6849
3
Hutchins
0.6570
4
Cedar Hill
0.6364
5
Lancaster
0.5995
6
Ferris
0.5648
7
Glenn Heights
0.5628
8
Wilmer
0.4679
9
Combine
0.3500
Methodology

Data was drawn directly from the Texas Comptroller's Property Tax Assistance Division (PTAD) annual City Rates and Levies spreadsheets for tax years 2017 through 2025 (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2017-2025). The 2020 file was retrieved via the Internet Archive Wayback Machine after being removed from the Comptroller's live rates page. A 2016 dataset could not be located on the Comptroller's site or in web archives; the ten-year comparison therefore spans 2017-2025 (nine years of verified primary data), and this gap is disclosed rather than filled with an estimate. For each year, every Texas city's reported taxable value and total tax rate was extracted, and a taxable-value-weighted average rate was calculated for (1) all Texas cities statewide, (2) all cities located in Dallas County, and (3) the nine HD109 cities (Cedar Hill, Lancaster, DeSoto, Glenn Heights, Hutchins, Wilmer, Combine, Ferris, and Seagoville). Weighting by taxable value (rather than a simple unweighted average) ensures the comparison is not skewed by small cities with disproportionately high or low rates.

Findings

HD109 cities' weighted-average city property tax rate fell from $0.7426 per $100 of taxable value in 2017 to $0.6212 per $100 in 2025, a decline of about 16.3% (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2017, 2025). Over the same period, the Texas statewide average fell from $0.5665 to $0.5316 (-6.2%), and Dallas County's average fell from $0.6882 to $0.6348 (-7.8%). Despite HD109's steeper rate cuts, HD109 cities were still taxed 16.8% above the Texas statewide average in 2025, though this is down sharply from a 31.1% gap in 2017. Compared to the rest of Dallas County, HD109 cities went from a 7.9% rate premium in 2017 to essentially rate parity by 2025 (about 2.1% below the county average), showing that HD109's largest tax-rate reductions — led by Lancaster (-30.9%) and Glenn Heights (-36.4%) between 2017 and 2025 — outpaced the rest of the county.

Individual city rates within HD109 vary widely: Seagoville carried the highest 2025 rate at $0.7207 per $100, while Combine carried the lowest at $0.3500 per $100 — a difference of more than double. This means the "average" HD109 rate masks meaningfully different tax burdens depending on which HD109 city a constituent lives in.

Limitations

These figures cover city-portion tax rates only — they do not include school district, county, community college, or special district rates, which for most HD109 homeowners make up the majority of a total property tax bill. A full effective-rate or total-bill comparison would require combining city, county, school district, and special district rates for a representative property, which was outside the scope of this rate-only comparison. 2016 data could not be located from the Comptroller or web archives and is excluded rather than estimated. DeSoto figures reflect the full city, though only the eastern half of DeSoto falls within HD109; Ferris straddles the Dallas/Ellis county line, and this dataset captures Ferris as reported under the Dallas Central Appraisal District. Dollar-impact estimates referenced elsewhere (e.g., tax on a $300,000 home) are illustrative calculations applying the city rate only to a round-number taxable value, not actual average tax bills.

References
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. (2017-2025). City rates and levies [Dataset]. Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. comptroller.texas.gov/taxes/property-tax/rates/
Annual spreadsheets published by the Comptroller's Property Tax Assistance Division reporting each Texas city's market value, taxable value, and total tax rate, as required by Tax Code Section 5.091. These files are the primary-source basis for every rate and taxable-value figure in this report. The 2020 file was accessed via the Internet Archive Wayback Machine snapshot after being removed from the live site; all other years were accessed directly.
Dallas County Tax Office. (2025). 2025 tax rates [Web page]. Dallas County. dallascounty.org/departments/tax/tax-rates.php
Dallas County Tax Office publication listing current M&O, I&S, and total tax rates for every taxing entity in the county, used to cross-check HD109 city rates reported by the Comptroller for consistency.
Total Property Tax Comparison — HD109 vs. Dallas County vs. Texas
All-in property tax rate (city + county + school district + identified special districts), 2025
1.992
HD109 Est. Total Rate, 2025 (per $100)
1.873
Dallas County Avg, 2025
1.894
Texas Statewide Avg, 2025
+5.2%
HD109 Above State Avg, 2025
Summary of Findings

School districts are the single largest component of the total property tax bill in every geography examined: 1.014 of Texas's 1.894 core rate, 1.023 of Dallas County's 1.873, and 1.156 of HD109's 1.992 (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025).

HD109's estimated total property tax rate of 1.992 per $100 runs about 5.2% above the Texas statewide average of 1.894 and 6.4% above the Dallas County average of 1.873, driven mainly by higher ISD rates in DeSoto ISD, Lancaster ISD, and Cedar Hill ISD relative to the county and state averages.

Lancaster and Wilmer are the only HD109 cities with an identified special district (MUD) layer in this dataset — Lancaster MUD #1 (0.9494 per $100) and Wilmer MUD #1 (0.18 per $100) — which pushes their all-in totals meaningfully higher than the other seven HD109 cities.

Table
Total Property Tax Rate by Geography, 2025
City + county + ISD (core), and core + identified special districts
Geography City County ISD Special Dist. Core Total Total Incl. Special Tax on $300k
Texas Statewide 0.5316 0.3487 1.0136 0.1164 1.8940 2.0104 $6,031
Dallas County 0.6348 0.2155 1.0227 0.1630 1.8730 2.0360 $6,108
HD109 Cities (composite) 0.6212 0.2155 1.1558 0.2412 1.9925 2.2337 $6,701
Chart · Stacked Bar
Total Property Tax Rate by Component, 2025
City, county, ISD, and special district shares
Table
HD109 City-Level Total Tax Detail, 2025
Per-city city, ISD, county and special district rate breakdown
City City Rate ISD Rate County Rate Special Rate Total Rate Tax on $300k
Lancaster 0.5995 1.2244 0.2155 0.9494 2.9888 $8,966
DeSoto 0.6849 1.2252 0.2155 0.0000 2.1256 $6,377
Ferris 0.5648 1.2308 0.2155 0.0000 2.0111 $6,033
Glenn Heights 0.5628 1.2252 0.2155 0.0000 2.0035 $6,010
Cedar Hill 0.6364 1.1279 0.2155 0.0000 1.9798 $5,940
Seagoville 0.7207 0.9938 0.2155 0.0000 1.9301 $5,790
Hutchins 0.6570 0.9938 0.2155 0.0000 1.8663 $5,599
Wilmer 0.4679 0.9938 0.2155 0.1800 1.8573 $5,572
Combine 0.3500 1.1692 0.2155 0.0000 1.7347 $5,204
Methodology

Data was drawn directly from the Texas Comptroller's Property Tax Assistance Division (PTAD) 2025 City Rates and Levies, County Rates and Levies, School District (ISD) Rates and Levies, and Special District Rates and Levies spreadsheets (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025). For each taxing-unit type, a taxable-value-weighted average total tax rate was calculated statewide and for all units located in Dallas County. The HD109 composite was built city-by-city: for each of the nine HD109 cities (Cedar Hill, Lancaster, DeSoto, Glenn Heights, Hutchins, Wilmer, Combine, Ferris, and Seagoville), the city's own weighted-average city rate was added to the total rate of its primary school district, the Dallas County rate, and any identified special district (MUD) rate whose name explicitly matches the city. The nine city-level totals were then combined into a single HD109 composite using each city's own taxable value as the weight, so larger cities like DeSoto and Cedar Hill influence the composite more than smaller cities like Combine.

Findings

The core total property tax rate (city + county + ISD) for the HD109 composite was 1.9925 per $100 of taxable value in 2025, compared to 1.8940 statewide and 1.8730 for all of Dallas County — meaning HD109's core rate ran about 5.2% above the state average and 6.4% above the Dallas County average. When the two identified HD109 special districts (Lancaster MUD #1 and Wilmer MUD #1) are added, HD109's all-in composite rises to 2.2337 per $100. On an illustrative $300,000 home, that translates to roughly $6,701 per year in HD109 versus $6,108 in Dallas County overall and $6,031 statewide.

School districts are consistently the dominant component: ISD rates make up 58% of HD109's core total, 54% of the statewide core total, and 55% of the Dallas County core total. Within HD109, DeSoto (2.126 per $100) and Lancaster (2.988 per $100 including its MUD) carry the two heaviest all-in rates, while Combine (1.735) and Wilmer (1.857) carry the lightest.

Limitations

HD109 is not an official Comptroller reporting geography — it is a composite approximation built by the author from overlapping city, county, ISD, and special-district units. Glenn Heights, Hutchins, Wilmer, Combine, Ferris, and Seagoville are each assigned to a single "primary" ISD (DeSoto ISD or Dallas ISD, based on the majority of the city's territory) even though small portions of some of these cities may fall in other districts (e.g., Ferris ISD also extends into Ellis County). DeSoto figures reflect the full city; only the eastern half of DeSoto technically falls within HD109. The special district search was limited to units whose name explicitly references an HD109 city; smaller or unnamed special districts (e.g., generic municipal utility districts, emergency services districts, or road districts) serving these cities may not be captured, so the "total incl. special" figures should be read as a floor rather than a ceiling on the special-district layer. All dollar-impact figures are illustrative calculations applying the estimated rate to a round $300,000 taxable value, not actual average tax bills for a real property.

References
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. (2025). City, county, school district, and special district rates and levies [Dataset]. Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. comptroller.texas.gov/taxes/property-tax/rates/
Annual spreadsheets published by the Comptroller's Property Tax Assistance Division reporting each Texas taxing unit's taxable value, tax rate, and calculated levy, as required by Tax Code Section 5.091. These four 2025 files (city, county, school district, and special district) are the primary-source basis for every rate, taxable-value, and levy figure in this module.
Dallas County Tax Office. (2025). 2025 tax rates [Web page]. Dallas County. dallascounty.org/departments/tax/tax-rates.php
Dallas County Tax Office publication listing current M&O, I&S, and total tax rates for every taxing entity in the county, used to cross-check HD109 city and county rates reported by the Comptroller for internal consistency.
02
Sales Tax Stability & Growth Under a Fixed Rate
How Texas sales & use tax revenue grew for 33+ years without a single rate increase, 1991–2024
6.25%
State Rate, Unchanged Since 1991
+472%
Revenue Growth, FY1991–FY2024
$47.24B
FY2024 Collections (All Funds)
+19.4%
FY2022 Growth, Post-COVID Rebound
+0.2%
FY2020 Change — COVID Year Held Flat, Not Negative
Summary of Findings

The rate never moved, but revenue kept growing. Texas set its state sales and use tax rate at 6.25% in 1990, effective fiscal 1991, and the Legislature has not raised it since. Over the following 33 years, collections rose from $8.26 billion to $47.24 billion — a 472% increase driven entirely by a growing population, rising incomes, and expanding consumer spending, not by any tax increase.

Even COVID-19 did not produce a real decline. Fiscal 2020, the year the pandemic hit hardest, saw collections essentially hold flat (up 0.2% to $34.04 billion) rather than collapse. Growth resumed immediately in fiscal 2021 (+5.6%) and accelerated sharply in fiscal 2022 (+19.4%, to $42.99 billion) as the economy reopened and consumer spending surged — the strongest single-year gain of the entire 33-year fixed-rate period.

A fixed-rate consumption tax captures economic growth automatically. Because the tax is a percentage of what people actually spend, a bigger economy and a bigger population mean bigger dollar collections at the exact same rate — no vote, no rate hike, and no reassessment required. This is the core mechanical argument for why a broad sales tax can fund government more predictably, and with more built-in room to eventually lower the rate, than a property tax system tied to fluctuating home valuations.

Chart · Line
Texas Sales & Use Tax Revenue, 1991–2024
Nominal collections vs. inflation-adjusted (2024 dollars), state rate held at 6.25% throughout
Nominal Revenue Inflation-Adjusted (2024 $)
Chart · Bar
Sales Tax Revenue Through the COVID-19 Period, FY2017–FY2024
Collections held nearly flat in the pandemic year, then grew every year after
Chart · Line
Sales Tax Revenue Growth Index, FY1991 = 100
Same 6.25% rate throughout — the entire increase reflects economic and population growth
Table
Texas Sales & Use Tax Revenue at a Glance, FY1991–FY2024
Selected years — state rate fixed at 6.25% for the entire period shown
Fiscal Year State Rate Nominal Revenue ($B) Inflation-Adj. Revenue, 2024$ ($B) YoY Change
1991 6.25% $8.26 $19.01
2000 6.25% $13.93 $25.38 +7.2%
2008 6.25% $21.54 $31.39 +6.6%
2009 6.25% $20.97 $30.66 −2.7%
2010 6.25% $19.58 $28.17 −6.6%
2019 6.25% $33.96 $41.66 +6.5%
2020 (COVID) 6.25% $34.04 $41.26 +0.2%
2021 6.25% $35.93 $41.59 +5.6%
2022 6.25% $42.99 $46.08 +19.4%
2023 6.25% $46.63 $48.01 +8.6%
2024 6.25% $47.24 $47.24 +1.3%
What This Shows

Texas set its state sales and use tax rate at 6.25% in 1990, effective fiscal year 1991, and the rate has not changed in the 33 fiscal years since (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025). This report tracks what happened to actual dollar collections over that same period, using the Comptroller's own year-by-year net collections data, to show what a fixed-rate consumption tax does as the underlying economy grows.

Methodology

All revenue figures come directly from the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts' Sources of Revenue: A History of State Taxes and Fees, 1972-2024 report (January 2025 edition), specifically its Sales and Use Tax net collections table, which reports "All Funds" collections for every fiscal year from 1972 through 2024 (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025). Fiscal years run September 1 through August 31. Inflation adjustments use the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), annual averages, rebasing every year's nominal dollar figure into constant fiscal 2024 dollars (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026). The revenue growth index in the third tab simply divides each year's nominal revenue by the fiscal 1991 baseline and multiplies by 100, so a reader can see the pace of growth in relative terms independent of dollar scale.

Findings

Nominal sales tax collections grew from $8.26 billion in fiscal 1991 to $47.24 billion in fiscal 2024, a 472% increase, without a single change to the 6.25% state rate (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025). Even after removing the effect of inflation, real collections still grew from the equivalent of $19.01 billion to $47.24 billion in constant 2024 dollars — meaning a large share of the growth reflects genuine economic and population expansion in Texas, not just rising prices (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025); (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026).

The COVID-19 pandemic produced only a brief pause, not a collapse. Fiscal 2020 collections rose a modest 0.2% to $34.04 billion even as the pandemic shut down large parts of the economy for months (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025). Growth resumed the following year (+5.6% in fiscal 2021) and then accelerated sharply to +19.4% in fiscal 2022, the single largest annual increase of the entire 33-year fixed-rate period, as reopening, stimulus-driven spending, and inflation combined to push collections to $42.99 billion (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025). By fiscal 2024, collections reached $47.24 billion, roughly 5.7 times the fiscal 1991 level in nominal terms.

Two prior downturns are visible in the data and provide useful context: the dot-com/early-2000s slowdown produced a mild dip in fiscal 2002-2003, and the 2008-2009 financial crisis produced a two-year decline (fiscal 2009 down 2.7%, fiscal 2010 down a further 6.6%) before growth resumed in fiscal 2011 (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025). Both recoveries confirm the same pattern seen after COVID: a broad consumption tax dips only when actual consumer spending genuinely contracts, and rebounds automatically — without any legislative action — once spending recovers.

Why This Matters for a Sales-Tax-Based System

Because a sales tax is levied as a percentage of what people actually spend, a bigger economy and a bigger population mechanically produce bigger dollar collections at the exact same rate. No vote, no reassessment, and no rate increase were needed to grow Texas sales tax revenue nearly six-fold since 1991 — population growth, income growth, and business formation did that automatically (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025). This is the central mechanical argument for why a jurisdiction relying on a broad sales tax, rather than a property tax tied to home valuations, can experience rising revenue purely from organic economic growth, and — if a taxing entity ever collects more than it needs to fund its services — has room to lower its rate over time rather than needing to raise it.

Limitations

The 6.25% state rate has been fixed since 1991, but the tax base (what specifically is taxed) has seen minor legislative adjustments over the same period — including a temporary fireworks tax that was later repealed, changes to the Texas Emissions Reduction Plan (TERP) surcharge on off-road diesel equipment, a 2019 requirement that online marketplace providers collect the tax, and targeted exemptions added in 2023 for items such as maternity and baby hygiene products (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025). These base changes mean a small share of long-run revenue growth reflects adjustments to what is taxed, not solely economic and population growth, though the rate itself never changed. Local sales taxes (city, county, transit, and special-district add-ons, capped at a combined 2 percentage points on top of the state rate) are excluded from this analysis, which covers only the state's 6.25% portion (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2025).

References
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. (2025). Sources of Revenue: A History of State Taxes and Fees, 1972-2024. comptroller.texas.gov
Official biennial report from the Texas Comptroller's office covering the full legislative and revenue history of every major state tax since 1972, including year-by-year net collections and every rate change for the state sales and use tax. This is the primary source for every revenue and rate figure in this module.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026). Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, annual averages. bls.gov/cpi
Federal government's official measure of consumer price inflation, used here to convert each fiscal year's nominal sales tax revenue into constant fiscal-2024 dollars so real (inflation-adjusted) growth can be distinguished from growth caused purely by rising prices.
Texas Median Household Income vs. Median Home Value, 1970–2024
Both series converted to constant 1966 dollars using the BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) to isolate real purchasing-power change from inflation
3.72×
Home Value ÷ Income Ratio, 2024
1.41×
Home Value ÷ Income Ratio, 1970
+17%
Real Income Growth, 1984–2024
+48%
Real Home Value Growth, 1984–2024
$302,999
TX Median Home Value, 2024 (Nominal)
$81,490
TX Median HH Income, 2024 (Nominal)
Summary of Findings

Texas home values have grown almost three times faster than household income in real, inflation-adjusted terms since 1984. Real median household income rose about 17% from 1984 to 2024, while real median home value rose about 48% over the same period (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2025; Federal Housing Finance Agency, 2026).

The home-value-to-income ratio has nearly tripled since 1970. A median Texas home cost about 1.4 times median household income in 1970; by 2024 it cost about 3.7 times median household income, with the sharpest jump occurring between 2020 and 2024.

Real household income was essentially flat for three decades. Adjusted for inflation, Texas median household income in 2000 was barely above its 1970 level, and dipped below it during the 1980s oil-bust years, before modest real gains resumed after 2010.

Table
Texas Income & Home Value at Census Benchmark Years
Nominal dollars vs. constant 1966 dollars, 1970–2024
Year Median HH Income (Nominal) Median Home Value (Nominal) Income (1966 $) Home Value (1966 $) Home Value ÷ Income Ratio
1970 $8,490 $12,000 $7,090 $10,021 1.41
1980 $16,469 $39,100 $6,476 $15,374 2.37
1990 $27,016 $59,600 $6,697 $14,775 2.21
2000 $39,927 $82,500 $7,512 $15,523 2.07
2010 $50,400 $128,900 $7,489 $19,153 2.56
2020 $68,400 $187,200 $8,563 $23,435 2.74
2024 $81,490 $302,999 $8,417 $31,296 3.72
Chart · Line
Texas Median Household Income vs. Median Home Value
Constant 1966 dollars, 1984–2024 (annual)
Median Household Income Median Home Value
Chart · Line
Real Growth Index: Income vs. Home Value
1984 = 100, inflation-adjusted (1966 dollars)
Household Income Index Home Value Index
Chart · Line
Texas Home Value-to-Income Ratio
Median home value ÷ median household income (real dollars), 1984–2024
Table
Full Annual Series, 1984–2024
Nominal and constant-1966-dollar values, Texas median household income and median home value
Year HH Income (Nominal) Home Value (Nominal) CPI-U HH Income (1966 $) Home Value (1966 $)
Overview

This report compares the change in Texas median household income against the change in Texas median home value from 1969/1970 through 2024, with all dollar figures converted into constant 1966 dollars to isolate real purchasing-power change from inflation. The earliest year for which reliable, state-specific Texas data could be located was 1969 (income, from the 1970 Census) and 1970 (home value, from the 1970 Census of Housing); a complete continuous series back to 1966 itself does not exist in Census records, so 1966 is used only as the price-deflation base year via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025).

In real, inflation-adjusted terms, Texas median household income grew modestly and unevenly — even declining during some periods — while Texas median home values grew far faster and more consistently, especially after 2010. The result is that median home value went from roughly 1.4 times median household income in 1970 to roughly 3.7 times median household income in 2024, meaning the affordability gap between what a typical Texas household earns and what a typical Texas home costs has more than doubled in real terms over this period.

Data Sources & Methodology

Income series. Decennial Census benchmark values for Texas median household/family income were assembled directly from U.S. Census Bureau decennial releases: $8,490 for 1969 (American Statistical Association Proceedings, 1972), $16,469 for 1979 (United Press International, 1982), $27,016 for 1989 and $39,927 for 1999 (Demographia, 2001). From 1984 forward, the annual Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement series for Texas — as compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) from Census Bureau data — provides year-by-year figures through 2024 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2025).

Home value series. Decennial Census "Historical Census of Housing Tables" provide unadjusted (nominal) Texas median home values for 1970 ($12,000), 1980 ($39,100), 1990 ($59,600), and 2000 ($82,500) ("Median Home Values: Unadjusted," n.d.). The 2010 figure ($128,900) comes from American Community Survey estimates as compiled by the Texas Demographic Center (Texas Demographic Center, 2015), and the 2020 figure ($187,200) and 2024 figure ($302,999) come from the Zillow Home Value Index for Texas as republished via FRED, cross-validated against Zillow's own current reporting (Zillow, 2026).

Because decennial Census and ACS benchmarks for home value are only available roughly once per decade, annual-resolution movement between benchmark years was estimated using the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) All-Transactions House Price Index for Texas, available annually from 1975 forward (Federal Housing Finance Agency, 2026). The FHFA index was scaled piecewise by the author so that it exactly matches the known Census/ACS dollar benchmarks at each decade point, with the index used only to approximate the shape of the path between those fixed points. This is a calculation performed by the author, not a figure drawn directly from any single source, and is disclosed here per the requirement to identify inferential or calculated data distinctly from directly reported source data.

All nominal dollar figures were converted to constant 1966 dollars using annual average CPI-U index values from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025), using the formula: real value = nominal value × (CPI-U in 1966 ÷ CPI-U in the observed year).

Findings: Decade Benchmarks

Texas real median household income was essentially flat for the first 30 years of this period: it was actually lower in real terms in 2000 ($7,512 in 1966 dollars) than a household earning the 1970 median might expect after even modest real growth, and real income dipped notably in the 1980s before recovering. By contrast, real median home value grew in every decade except the 1980s, when Texas experienced an oil-bust housing downturn that temporarily depressed home values even in nominal terms. The home-value-to-income ratio rose from 1.41 in 1970 to 2.37 in 1980, eased slightly to 2.07 by 2000, then climbed steadily to 2.56 in 2010, 2.74 in 2020, and 3.72 by 2024 — the sharpest single jump of the entire series occurring in the four years between 2020 and 2024.

Findings: Annual Trend, 1984–2024

Using the annual FRED income series and the FHFA-interpolated home value series, real median household income in Texas grew from roughly $7,179 (1966 dollars) in 1984 to about $8,417 in 2024 — a real increase of only around 17 percent over 40 years. Over the same period, real median home value in Texas rose from roughly $21,082 to $31,296 (1966 dollars) — a real increase of roughly 48 percent, with nearly all of that increase occurring after 2012 and especially after the COVID-19 pandemic-era housing boom of 2020–2022. When both series are indexed to 1984 = 100, the real household income index stood at roughly 117 by 2024 (a 17 percent real gain), while the real home value index stood at roughly 148 (a 48 percent real gain) — visually confirming that Texas home prices have outpaced Texas household earning power in real terms, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis recovery and the 2020–2022 pandemic-era housing market surge.

Findings: The Affordability Ratio

The home-value-to-income ratio — how many years of gross household income it would take to purchase the median home outright — fell from approximately 2.56 in 2010 to 2.74 in 2020, then jumped sharply to roughly 3.72 by 2024, an increase of nearly one full year of household income needed to purchase a median home in just four years. This acceleration coincides with historically low mortgage rates and pandemic-driven housing demand of 2020–2022, combined with continued population growth into Texas that outpaced new housing supply, as reflected in the FHFA index's largest recorded single-year Texas appreciation rates occurring in 2021 and 2022 (Federal Housing Finance Agency, 2026). A ratio below roughly 3.0 is generally considered affordable by historical housing-finance conventions; ratios above 4.0 to 5.0 are typically associated with severe affordability strain, meaning Texas's 2024 ratio of 3.72 sits meaningfully above the traditional affordability threshold.

Limitations

No single continuous, annually reported, state-specific Texas dataset exists covering median household income and median home value back to 1966; the decennial Census only measured state-level median income and home value once every ten years prior to the American Community Survey's launch in the 2000s. The 1969, 1979, 1989, and 1999 income figures and the 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 home value figures are therefore official Census-year snapshots rather than a continuous annual series. The annual home value figures for years between decennial Census/ACS benchmarks were calculated by the author by scaling the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index for Texas to match the known dollar benchmarks at each decade point; these interpolated values should be understood as a reasonable estimate of the trend rather than an official reported statistic for any single year other than the anchor years themselves. This is a deductive calculation using an official, methodologically sound index (FHFA) anchored to official Census/ACS dollar figures.

References
American Statistical Association. (1972). Preliminary evaluation of 1969 money income data collected in the 1970 Census and the March 1970 Current Population Survey [Conference proceedings]. asasrms.org/Proceedings/y1972
A statistical methodology paper analyzing 1970 Census income data quality, including a state-by-state table reporting Texas's 1969 median family income of $8,490. Used as the earliest available Texas-specific income benchmark for this analysis, since a complete original 1970 Census state income report was not directly accessible online.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Historical Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, all items, by month [Data set]. U.S. Department of Labor. bls.gov/cpi/tables/supplemental-files
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' official historical monthly and annual CPI-U series, dating back to 1913. Used to compute annual average inflation index values and to convert nominal Texas income and home-value dollar figures into constant 1966 dollars for real comparison across the study period.
Demographia. (2001). Change in median household income: 1990–2000 Census by US state and district [Data compilation]. demographia.com/db-stateinc2000.htm
A privately compiled table presenting U.S. Census Bureau 1990 and 2000 decennial Census median household income figures by state, including Texas's 1989 ($27,016) and 1999 ($39,927) nominal median household incomes. Functions as a secondary compilation of primary Census data; the underlying figures originate from official Census Bureau STF3 and SF3 releases.
Federal Housing Finance Agency. (2026). House Price Index datasets: Annual state indexes (all-transactions index) [Data set]. fhfa.gov/hpi/download/annual/hpi_at_state.xlsx
FHFA's official annual state-level House Price Index dataset, covering all 50 states from 1975 forward. Used to model the year-to-year shape of Texas home price movement between decennial Census benchmark years, since the Census itself does not report state median home values annually. The index was scaled to known dollar benchmarks by the author for this analysis.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2025). Median household income in Texas [MEHOINUSTXA646N] [Data set]. FRED. fred.stlouisfed.org/data/MEHOINUSTXA646N
FRED series republishing annual median household income figures for Texas in current dollars from 1984 to 2024, sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement. Provided the annual-resolution income data central to the year-by-year portion of this analysis.
Median home values: Unadjusted. (n.d.). U.S. Census Bureau. census.gov/coh-values/values-unadj.txt
Official U.S. Census Bureau historical data table presenting unadjusted (nominal) median home values by state for decennial Census years 1940 through 2000. Provided the Texas home-value benchmarks for 1970 ($12,000), 1980 ($39,100), 1990 ($59,600), and 2000 ($82,500) used as fixed anchor points in this analysis.
Texas Demographic Center. (2015). Demographic and housing profile: San Antonio [Presentation]. demographics.texas.gov
A Texas state government demographic presentation summarizing 2010-era American Community Survey data, including the statewide median value of owner-occupied housing units in Texas ($128,900). Used as the 2010 anchor point in the home-value series because it directly cites official Census ACS figures at the state level.
United Press International. (1982, April 19). The median household incomes for the 50 states, District of Columbia and 38 metropolitan areas of 1 million or more as reported Monday by the Census Bureau. upi.com/Archives/1982
A wire-service news report directly transcribing an official U.S. Census Bureau data release from the 1980 Census, listing Texas's 1979 median household income as $16,469. Used as the 1979/1980 income benchmark because it reproduces the Census Bureau's official figures verbatim; the original Census Bureau publication itself was not independently located online during this research.
Zillow. (2026). Texas housing market: 2026 home prices & trends. zillow.com/home-values/54/tx
Zillow's current housing market data page for Texas, reporting the Zillow Home Value Index for the state (approximately $302,999 as of mid-2026). Used, cross-validated against the FRED-published Zillow Home Value Index series for Texas, as the most recent (2024) anchor point in the home-value series.
Federal Healthcare vs. Military Spending
Historical federal ledger, household costs, health outcomes, and 2026 monthly Treasury outlays
$21.09T
Federal health spending, 2000–2024
$15.00T
National defense outlays, 2000–2024
1.41×
Cumulative health ÷ defense
$1.599T
Selected health outlays, Jan.–Aug. 2026
43–95×
Monthly health ÷ $3B Iran scenario
Summary of Findings

The federal government spent more on healthcare than on national defense over 2000–2024: $21.087 trillion in CMS federal sponsor spending versus $15.004 trillion in OMB national-defense outlays, a cumulative ratio of 1.41 to 1. The series use different accounting periods—calendar years for CMS and federal fiscal years for OMB—so the comparison establishes scale rather than a reconciled accounting identity (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services [CMS], 2024); (Office of Management and Budget [OMB], 2026).

Selected federal healthcare-related net outlays totaled $1.599 trillion from January through August 2026. Each observed monthly total was 43.3 to 94.7 times the $3 billion high-intensity Iran-conflict benchmark. The benchmark is a scenario—not an assertion that exactly $3 billion was spent in every month (Congressional Budget Office [CBO], 2026).

More federal healthcare spending did not translate into lower household medical prices across the period. Employer premiums, worker contributions, deductibles, out-of-pocket spending, and major medical price indexes generally rose, while health outcomes moved in different directions. Those patterns are descriptive and do not, by themselves, establish that federal spending caused the changes.

Table · First Panel
Monthly healthcare outlays compared with a $3 billion Iran-conflict scenario
Treasury net outlays versus CBO's prospective high-intensity monthly benchmark; billions of dollars
Scenario comparison—not observed month-specific Iran-war outlays. CBO estimated roughly $38 billion in cumulative Department of Defense costs through August 1, 2026. For an additional month, CBO estimated $2 billion at May–June intensity and $3 billion at approximately July intensity. The flat $3 billion column below applies that upper benchmark to each month solely to show scale.
Month Federal healthcare-related outlays Iran conflict ($3B scenario) Healthcare ÷ scenario
January 2026 $253.610B $3.000B 84.5×
February 2026 $178.586B $3.000B 59.5×
March 2026 $145.241B $3.000B 48.4×
April 2026 $187.426B $3.000B 62.5×
May 2026 $192.264B $3.000B 64.1×
June 2026 $227.987B $3.000B 76.0×
July 2026 $284.080B $3.000B 94.7×
August 2026 $129.783B $3.000B 43.3×
January–August total $1,598.977B $24.000B scenario 66.6×

Sources. U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement Table 5 for healthcare-related net outlays (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2026); CBO's primary cost estimate (CBO, 2026).

Note. Healthcare values sum 16 selected non-overlapping program lines. Intragovernmental transfers are excluded where identified. The Iran column is a constant scenario; $24 billion is not an estimate of observed January–August war spending.

Chart
Annual federal health, defense, and OCO/GWOT spending
2000–2024; billions of nominal dollars
Interactive chart unavailable. Use the supporting data table or CSV download.

Source. CMS National Health Expenditure Accounts and OMB Historical Tables. Calculations by author. (CMS, 2024); (OMB, 2026).

Note. CMS federal sponsor spending uses calendar years; OMB defense outlays use fiscal years. OCO/GWOT is budget authority, largely overlaps defense resources, and is never added to defense outlays. Missing values remain missing.

Table
Federal spending checkpoints
Billions of nominal dollars; OCO/GWOT shown separately
Year Federal health Defense outlays OCO/GWOT authority Cum. health Cum. defense
2000 263.2 294.4 263.2 294.4
2005 456.5 495.3 95.0 2,202.3 2,303.4
2010 739.8 693.5 163.0 5,257.9 5,347.0
2015 917.0 589.7 65.0 9,255.8 8,557.0
2020 1,511.8 724.6 14,873.9 11,790.6
2024 1,652.0 873.5 21,087.3 15,004.0

Sources. CMS and OMB; war-funding sources are documented in the project data dictionary.

Chart
Federal health and defense spending per person
Inflation-adjusted 2000 dollars per person
Interactive chart unavailable. Use the supporting data table or CSV download.

Source. CMS, OMB, BLS CPI-U, and U.S. population estimates. Calculations by author.

Note. Inflation adjustment and per-capita conversion improve comparability over time but do not resolve the CMS calendar-year versus OMB fiscal-year difference.

Chart
Cumulative federal health, defense, and OCO/GWOT
2000–2024; billions of nominal dollars
Interactive chart unavailable. Use the supporting data table or CSV download.

Source. CMS National Health Expenditure Accounts, OMB Historical Tables, and official CBO/GAO OCO/GWOT source tables.

Note. OCO/GWOT is a separate budget-authority series and is not additive to national-defense outlays.

Chart
Employer coverage costs continued rising
Index, 2000 = 100; missing years remain blank
Interactive chart unavailable. Use the supporting data table or CSV download.

Source. AHRQ Medical Expenditure Panel Survey–Insurance Component. Calculations by author. (Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality [AHRQ], 2025).

Note. MEPS-IC was not fielded in 2007; the single-deductible series starts in 2002. Series are not interpolated.

Chart
Out-of-pocket spending per person
Nominal dollars per person, 2000–2024
Interactive chart unavailable. Use the supporting data table or CSV download.

Source. CMS National Health Expenditure Accounts. Calculations by author. (CMS, 2024).

Note. Out-of-pocket spending is nationwide spending by all payers and should not be confused with federal outlays.

Chart
Medical price components
Index, 2000 = 100
Interactive chart unavailable. Use the supporting data table or CSV download.

Source. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U medical components. Calculations by author. (Bureau of Labor Statistics [BLS], 2026).

Note. Official published CPI series are used as released; missing observations remain blank. Index growth is descriptive and is not attributed to any single law.

Table
Employer cost checkpoints
Annual dollars per enrolled employee
Year Family premium Employee family contribution Single deductible
2000 $6,772 $1,614
2005 $10,728 $2,585 $652
2010 $13,871 $3,721 $1,025
2015 $17,322 $4,710 $1,541
2020 $20,758 $5,978 $1,945
2024 $24,540 $7,216 $2,085

Source. AHRQ MEPS-IC.

Chart
Selected age-adjusted death rates
Deaths per 100,000 standard population
Interactive chart unavailable. Use the supporting data table or CSV download.

Source. CDC/NCHS mortality data and annual data briefs. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2025).

Note. Heart disease and cancer generally declined; drug-overdose mortality rose. Missing values are not zero and are not interpolated.

Chart
U.S. life expectancy at birth
Years, 1999–2024
Interactive chart unavailable. Use the supporting data table or CSV download.

Source. CDC/NCHS Health, United States and annual mortality data briefs. (CDC, 2025).

Note. Changes coincide with many demographic, behavioral, medical, and public-health factors; this chart does not assign causation.

Table
Health outcome checkpoints
Life expectancy in years; death rates per 100,000
Year Life expectancy Heart disease Cancer Diabetes Overdose
2000 76.8 257.6 199.6 25.1 6.2
2005 77.6 216.8 185.1 24.9 10.1
2010 78.7 179.1 172.8 20.8 12.3
2015 78.7 168.5 158.5 21.3 16.3
2020 77.0 168.2 144.1 24.8 28.3
2021 76.4 173.8 146.6 25.4 32.4
2024 79.0 157.6 139.4 21.7 23.1

Source. CDC/NCHS mortality data and briefs.

Chart
Selected healthcare-related net outlays by month
January–August 2026; billions of dollars
Interactive chart unavailable. Use the supporting data table or CSV download.

Source. U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement Table 5. (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2026).

Note. Totals sum the selected program rows in the attached source file; monthly totals can vary because of payment timing, refunds, and offsetting receipts.

Chart
Year-to-date healthcare outlays by program
January–August 2026; billions of dollars
Interactive chart unavailable. Use the supporting data table or CSV download.

Source. U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement Table 5. (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2026).

Note. Programs are ordered by year-to-date net outlays. Negative values, where present, reflect net offsetting flows and are not changed to zero.

Table
Selected healthcare program totals
January–August 2026; ranked by year-to-date net outlays
Rank Program YTD outlays Share of selected total
1 Medicare $869.417B 54.4%
2 Medicaid $478.716B 29.9%
3 ACA premium support $78.344B 4.9%
4 Veterans health care $69.336B 4.3%
5 National Institutes of Health $29.921B 1.9%
6 CHIP $16.583B 1.0%
7 Federal employee health benefits $13.747B 0.9%
8 Health Resources and Services Administration $9.683B 0.6%
9 DOD retiree health care $9.120B 0.6%
10 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention $6.489B 0.4%
11 Indian Health Service $5.839B 0.4%
12 Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration $4.899B 0.3%
13 Food and Drug Administration $3.147B 0.2%
14 Other CMS programs $2.062B 0.1%
15 Administration for Community Living $1.474B 0.1%
16 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality $0.199B 0.0%

Source. Treasury MTS Table 5; calculations by author.

Source Data
All 128 monthly program records
Treasury line codes retained for reproducibility
Month Program Category Net outlays ($B) Source line codes
January 2026 Medicare Insurance & care 166.144 2797;2848
February 2026 Medicare Insurance & care 89.969 2797;2848
March 2026 Medicare Insurance & care 47.836 2797;2848
April 2026 Medicare Insurance & care 105.025 2797;2848
May 2026 Medicare Insurance & care 103.608 2797;2848
June 2026 Medicare Insurance & care 122.888 2797;2848
July 2026 Medicare Insurance & care 192.135 2797;2848
August 2026 Medicare Insurance & care 41.812 2797;2848
January 2026 Medicaid Insurance & care 51.779 2788
February 2026 Medicaid Insurance & care 57.142 2788
March 2026 Medicaid Insurance & care 67.828 2788
April 2026 Medicaid Insurance & care 56.010 2788
May 2026 Medicaid Insurance & care 62.672 2788
June 2026 Medicaid Insurance & care 68.201 2788
July 2026 Medicaid Insurance & care 58.298 2788
August 2026 Medicaid Insurance & care 56.787 2788
January 2026 ACA premium support Insurance & care 12.181 4148;14831
February 2026 ACA premium support Insurance & care 11.378 4148;14831
March 2026 ACA premium support Insurance & care 8.619 4148;14831
April 2026 ACA premium support Insurance & care 4.064 4148;14831
May 2026 ACA premium support Insurance & care 6.475 4148;14831
June 2026 ACA premium support Insurance & care 15.098 4148;14831
July 2026 ACA premium support Insurance & care 10.059 4148;14831
August 2026 ACA premium support Insurance & care 10.469 4148;14831
January 2026 Veterans health care Direct care 11.169 4203;4205;4206;4207;4208;4209
February 2026 Veterans health care Direct care 7.975 4203;4205;4206;4207;4208;4209
March 2026 Veterans health care Direct care 7.959 4203;4205;4206;4207;4208;4209
April 2026 Veterans health care Direct care 8.433 4203;4205;4206;4207;4208;4209
May 2026 Veterans health care Direct care 6.925 4203;4205;4206;4207;4208;4209
June 2026 Veterans health care Direct care 8.504 4203;4205;4206;4207;4208;4209
July 2026 Veterans health care Direct care 9.875 4203;4205;4206;4207;4208;4209
August 2026 Veterans health care Direct care 8.497 4203;4205;4206;4207;4208;4209
January 2026 National Institutes of Health Public health & research 3.559 2745
February 2026 National Institutes of Health Public health & research 3.411 2745
March 2026 National Institutes of Health Public health & research 4.039 2745
April 2026 National Institutes of Health Public health & research 3.682 2745
May 2026 National Institutes of Health Public health & research 3.604 2745
June 2026 National Institutes of Health Public health & research 4.096 2745
July 2026 National Institutes of Health Public health & research 3.614 2745
August 2026 National Institutes of Health Public health & research 3.916 2745
January 2026 CHIP Insurance & care 1.774 2790
February 2026 CHIP Insurance & care 1.989 2790
March 2026 CHIP Insurance & care 2.419 2790
April 2026 CHIP Insurance & care 1.804 2790
May 2026 CHIP Insurance & care 2.029 2790
June 2026 CHIP Insurance & care 2.421 2790
July 2026 CHIP Insurance & care 2.013 2790
August 2026 CHIP Insurance & care 2.133 2790
January 2026 Federal employee health benefits Coverage benefits 0.868 4403;4407;4425
February 2026 Federal employee health benefits Coverage benefits 1.631 4403;4407;4425
March 2026 Federal employee health benefits Coverage benefits 1.112 4403;4407;4425
April 2026 Federal employee health benefits Coverage benefits 3.306 4403;4407;4425
May 2026 Federal employee health benefits Coverage benefits 2.280 4403;4407;4425
June 2026 Federal employee health benefits Coverage benefits 1.126 4403;4407;4425
July 2026 Federal employee health benefits Coverage benefits 1.830 4403;4407;4425
August 2026 Federal employee health benefits Coverage benefits 1.594 4403;4407;4425
January 2026 Health Resources and Services Administration Public health & research 1.174 2689
February 2026 Health Resources and Services Administration Public health & research 1.080 2689
March 2026 Health Resources and Services Administration Public health & research 1.361 2689
April 2026 Health Resources and Services Administration Public health & research 1.085 2689
May 2026 Health Resources and Services Administration Public health & research 1.088 2689
June 2026 Health Resources and Services Administration Public health & research 1.313 2689
July 2026 Health Resources and Services Administration Public health & research 1.433 2689
August 2026 Health Resources and Services Administration Public health & research 1.150 2689
January 2026 DOD retiree health care Coverage benefits 1.575 4284
February 2026 DOD retiree health care Coverage benefits 0.793 4284
March 2026 DOD retiree health care Coverage benefits 1.055 4284
April 2026 DOD retiree health care Coverage benefits 1.561 4284
May 2026 DOD retiree health care Coverage benefits 0.862 4284
June 2026 DOD retiree health care Coverage benefits 0.993 4284
July 2026 DOD retiree health care Coverage benefits 1.532 4284
August 2026 DOD retiree health care Coverage benefits 0.749 4284
January 2026 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public health & research 0.834 2700
February 2026 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public health & research 0.787 2700
March 2026 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public health & research 0.800 2700
April 2026 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public health & research 0.736 2700
May 2026 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public health & research 0.714 2700
June 2026 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public health & research 0.977 2700
July 2026 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public health & research 0.897 2700
August 2026 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public health & research 0.743 2700
January 2026 Indian Health Service Direct care 1.177 2690
February 2026 Indian Health Service Direct care 0.928 2690
March 2026 Indian Health Service Direct care 0.595 2690
April 2026 Indian Health Service Direct care 0.556 2690
May 2026 Indian Health Service Direct care 0.261 2690
June 2026 Indian Health Service Direct care 0.778 2690
July 2026 Indian Health Service Direct care 0.873 2690
August 2026 Indian Health Service Direct care 0.672 2690
January 2026 Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Public health & research 0.626 2765
February 2026 Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Public health & research 0.586 2765
March 2026 Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Public health & research 0.725 2765
April 2026 Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Public health & research 0.572 2765
May 2026 Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Public health & research 0.530 2765
June 2026 Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Public health & research 0.729 2765
July 2026 Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Public health & research 0.620 2765
August 2026 Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Public health & research 0.511 2765
January 2026 Food and Drug Administration Public health & research 0.351 2684
February 2026 Food and Drug Administration Public health & research 0.423 2684
March 2026 Food and Drug Administration Public health & research 0.341 2684
April 2026 Food and Drug Administration Public health & research 0.335 2684
May 2026 Food and Drug Administration Public health & research 0.436 2684
June 2026 Food and Drug Administration Public health & research 0.406 2684
July 2026 Food and Drug Administration Public health & research 0.447 2684
August 2026 Food and Drug Administration Public health & research 0.409 2684
January 2026 Other CMS programs Administration & other 0.200 2791;2798;2855
February 2026 Other CMS programs Administration & other 0.280 2791;2798;2855
March 2026 Other CMS programs Administration & other 0.326 2791;2798;2855
April 2026 Other CMS programs Administration & other 0.187 2791;2798;2855
May 2026 Other CMS programs Administration & other 0.524 2791;2798;2855
June 2026 Other CMS programs Administration & other 0.164 2791;2798;2855
July 2026 Other CMS programs Administration & other 0.228 2791;2798;2855
August 2026 Other CMS programs Administration & other 0.153 2791;2798;2855
January 2026 Administration for Community Living Public health & research 0.176 2999
February 2026 Administration for Community Living Public health & research 0.187 2999
March 2026 Administration for Community Living Public health & research 0.191 2999
April 2026 Administration for Community Living Public health & research 0.052 2999
May 2026 Administration for Community Living Public health & research 0.235 2999
June 2026 Administration for Community Living Public health & research 0.267 2999
July 2026 Administration for Community Living Public health & research 0.206 2999
August 2026 Administration for Community Living Public health & research 0.159 2999
January 2026 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Public health & research 0.022 2770
February 2026 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Public health & research 0.026 2770
March 2026 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Public health & research 0.033 2770
April 2026 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Public health & research 0.019 2770
May 2026 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Public health & research 0.020 2770
June 2026 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Public health & research 0.028 2770
July 2026 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Public health & research 0.021 2770
August 2026 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Public health & research 0.031 2770

Note. Scope notes and exact-dollar values remain in the downloadable project CSV supplied with this module's source package.

Definition of federal healthcare spending. The 2000–2024 historical series uses CMS National Health Expenditure Accounts federal sponsor spending. The 2026 monthly series is narrower: it sums 16 healthcare-related Treasury MTS Table 5 program lines selected to avoid obvious subtotal duplication. These two series answer different questions and are not spliced into one time series.

Defense and war accounting. OMB national-defense outlays are federal fiscal-year outlays. OCO/GWOT figures are budget authority for designated war accounts and overlap defense; they are presented separately. The 2026 Iran-conflict benchmark comes directly from CBO and is incremental DoD cost, not a complete whole-of-government cost.

Iran-cost uncertainty. CBO relied on government databases and public reporting because DoD did not respond to its information requests. CBO's approximately $38 billion estimate through August 1 excludes costs borne outside DoD, basic military operating costs already in the budget, future veterans' health and disability costs, unverifiable base-repair costs, and some future maintenance. Its $2–$3 billion figure is prospective and intensity-dependent.

Interpretation. Charts showing legislation dates, correlations, simultaneous movement, household costs, or outcomes are descriptive. They do not establish that a law or federal spending caused a subsequent change. Blank values remain missing and are never converted to zero or interpolated unless an official source itself supplies an estimate.

References

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. (2025). Medical Expenditure Panel Survey—Insurance Component [Data set]. https://datatools.ahrq.gov/meps-ic/

Official survey estimates used for employer-sponsored premiums, worker contributions, and deductibles. MEPS-IC was not fielded in 2007.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026). Consumer Price Index: U.S. medical care series [Data set]. https://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/cu/cu.data.15.USMedical

Official monthly CPI-U components used to compare changes in hospital services, medical services, prescription drugs, physicians' services, and medical commodities.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. (2025). Mortality data and data briefs. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/

Official life-expectancy and age-adjusted mortality measures used for outcome trends. The assembled series preserves documented gaps.

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. (2024). National Health Expenditure Accounts: Historical [Data set]. https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-and-reports/national-health-expenditure-data/historical

Primary source for historical federal sponsor spending, total national health expenditures, and out-of-pocket expenditures.

Congressional Budget Office. (2026, September 15). Estimating the cost of combat operations against Iran. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62756

Primary source for the approximately $38 billion incremental DoD cost estimate through August 1 and the prospective $2–$3 billion cost of an additional month under stated intensity assumptions.

Office of Management and Budget. (2026). Historical tables [Data set]. https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/historical-tables/

Primary source for federal national-defense outlays by fiscal year.

U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2026). Monthly Treasury Statement [Data set]. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/

Primary cash-basis source for the January–August 2026 monthly healthcare-related net outlays and underlying Treasury source-line codes.

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